BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB CO (BMY) Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 revenue was $12.34B (+8% YoY, +9% ex-FX) and Non-GAAP EPS was $1.67; GAAP EPS was $0.04 as GAAP gross margin fell to 61.0% due to intangible asset impairments and product mix .
- Growth Portfolio revenue rose 21% to $6.36B led by Reblozyl (+71%), Breyanzi (+160%), Camzyos (+153%), Yervoy (+19%), and Opdualag (+34%); Legacy Portfolio declined 4% to $5.98B on generics, partially offset by Eliquis (+11%) .
- 2025 guidance introduced: revenues ~$45.5B, Non-GAAP EPS $6.55–$6.85, GM ~72%, OpEx ~$16B, OI&E ~$30M, tax ~18%; includes 18–20% Legacy Portfolio decline, ~$500M FX headwind, and Revlimid ~$2–$2.5B WW sales .
- Expanded strategic productivity program targets
$2B additional annualized cost savings by YE 2027 ($1B in 2025), with savings to drop to the bottom line—potential stock catalyst alongside Opdivo Qvantig conversion and Cobenfy ramp .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Growth Portfolio momentum: Q4 Growth revenue +21% (+23% ex-FX), with strong demand across Reblozyl, Breyanzi, Camzyos, Yervoy, and Opdualag .
- Launch/label advances: U.S. approval of Opdivo Qvantig (subcutaneous nivolumab), positive EU label update for Camzyos echo monitoring, and initial Cobenfy launch with early script traction .
- Management execution discipline: CEO emphasized a “solid foundation” and multi-year path to top-tier growth; CFO detailed ~$2B incremental cost savings program to streamline operations and enhance margins .
What Went Wrong
- Margin compression: GAAP gross margin declined to 61.0% (from 76.1%) on intangible asset impairments and mix; Non-GAAP GM fell to 74.0% (from 76.4%) .
- Legacy headwinds: Sprycel (-62% WW), Revlimid (-8% WW), Abraxane (-30% WW), and Pomalyst WW (-8%) pressured Legacy revenue despite Eliquis strength .
- Higher tax and interest: Non-GAAP effective tax rate rose to 19.9% (vs 14.9% prior-year) on jurisdictional mix; increased interest expense impacted Non-GAAP EPS .
Financial Results
Segment mix and key products:
KPIs:
Notes:
- Q4 includes GAAP intangible asset impairment of ~$1.56B; specified items reconciled in 8-K Exhibit tables .
- Q4 product metrics include inventory builds (e.g., Opdivo ~$70M; Camzyos ~$65M), as noted by management .
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We made good progress in 2024… strong topline growth driven by key products and important pipeline advancements… established a solid foundation to navigate the multi-year journey toward achieving top-tier sustainable growth” — CEO Christopher Boerner .
- “We are entering a data-rich period with multiple catalysts over the next 24 months… potential to launch 10 or more new medicines and pursue over 30 indication expansions” — CEO .
- “Expanded… ~ $2B incremental run-rate operating expense savings… ~$1B in 2025 and remainder by end of 2027… incremental savings drop to the bottom line” — CFO David Elkins .
- “Eliquis… Q1 sales lowest quarter due to redesign; second-half higher; overall strong YoY growth” — CFO/Commercial .
Q&A Highlights
- Cobenfy ramp: Early adoption with strong payer access; strategy to break entrenched prescribing habits and broaden psychiatrist base; ramp expected to strengthen in H2 2025 .
- Cost program cadence: ~$2B incremental savings to improve agility; aligned to invest for growth while right-sizing structure; potential for ongoing alignment as business needs evolve .
- Opdivo Qvantig conversion: Positive physician feedback; conversion pacing tied to temporary-to-permanent J code (accelerates H2) .
- Camzyos: EU label easing; U.S. PDUFA in April to reduce echo monitoring burden; ODYSSEY nHCM readout expected in Q2 .
- CELMoDs and MRD: FDA engagement to include MRD as co-primary endpoint for iberdomide; regulatory approach will depend on magnitude and risk-benefit; PFS remains co-primary .
Estimates Context
- Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 EPS and revenue was unavailable due to data access limits; comparisons to estimates are not provided. Values would have been retrieved from S&P Global*.
- Management indicated 2025 revenue guidance (~$45.5B) is broadly in line once
$500M FX headwind is considered vs Bloomberg consensus ($46.2B), with differences mainly in Legacy (Revlimid $2–$2.5B, generics) .
*Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Growth durability: Growth Portfolio surpassed Legacy in Q4 and is compounding, supported by strong oncology/hematology/cardiovascular assets and new neuroscience entry (Cobenfy) .
- Near-term cadence: Expect softer Q1 from Eliquis destock and Part D dynamics, with H2 stronger; Q2 normalization company-wide per management’s phasing commentary .
- Margin path: Expanded ~$2B savings program and Opdivo Qvantig conversion support margin trajectory; watch non-GAAP GM vs ~72% FY25 guide .
- Launch catalysts: Monitor Cobenfy TRx growth and access, Camzyos ODYSSEY and U.S. REMS easing, and Opdivo Qvantig payer coding in H2 .
- Legacy pressure priced: Generics (Sprycel/Revlimid/Abraxane/Pomalyst EU) remain headwinds; FY25 Legacy decline (~18–20%) embedded in guide; Revlimid guided to $2–$2.5B .
- Pipeline optionality: 2025–2027 data cadence across CELMoDs, Milvexian, RYZ101, CD19 NEX-T, Sotyktu and more could reshape medium-term growth velocity .
- Trading lens: Near-term sentiment may hinge on H1 phasing and cost program execution; constructive into H2 on Eliquis dynamics, Opdivo Qvantig conversion, and visible catalysts .