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BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB CO (BMY) Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 revenue was $12.34B (+8% YoY, +9% ex-FX) and Non-GAAP EPS was $1.67; GAAP EPS was $0.04 as GAAP gross margin fell to 61.0% due to intangible asset impairments and product mix .
  • Growth Portfolio revenue rose 21% to $6.36B led by Reblozyl (+71%), Breyanzi (+160%), Camzyos (+153%), Yervoy (+19%), and Opdualag (+34%); Legacy Portfolio declined 4% to $5.98B on generics, partially offset by Eliquis (+11%) .
  • 2025 guidance introduced: revenues ~$45.5B, Non-GAAP EPS $6.55–$6.85, GM ~72%, OpEx ~$16B, OI&E ~$30M, tax ~18%; includes 18–20% Legacy Portfolio decline, ~$500M FX headwind, and Revlimid ~$2–$2.5B WW sales .
  • Expanded strategic productivity program targets $2B additional annualized cost savings by YE 2027 ($1B in 2025), with savings to drop to the bottom line—potential stock catalyst alongside Opdivo Qvantig conversion and Cobenfy ramp .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Growth Portfolio momentum: Q4 Growth revenue +21% (+23% ex-FX), with strong demand across Reblozyl, Breyanzi, Camzyos, Yervoy, and Opdualag .
  • Launch/label advances: U.S. approval of Opdivo Qvantig (subcutaneous nivolumab), positive EU label update for Camzyos echo monitoring, and initial Cobenfy launch with early script traction .
  • Management execution discipline: CEO emphasized a “solid foundation” and multi-year path to top-tier growth; CFO detailed ~$2B incremental cost savings program to streamline operations and enhance margins .

What Went Wrong

  • Margin compression: GAAP gross margin declined to 61.0% (from 76.1%) on intangible asset impairments and mix; Non-GAAP GM fell to 74.0% (from 76.4%) .
  • Legacy headwinds: Sprycel (-62% WW), Revlimid (-8% WW), Abraxane (-30% WW), and Pomalyst WW (-8%) pressured Legacy revenue despite Eliquis strength .
  • Higher tax and interest: Non-GAAP effective tax rate rose to 19.9% (vs 14.9% prior-year) on jurisdictional mix; increased interest expense impacted Non-GAAP EPS .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Billions)$12.20 $11.89 $12.34
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.83 $0.60 $0.04
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$2.07 $1.80 $1.67
GAAP Gross Margin %73.2% 75.1% 61.0%
Non-GAAP Gross Margin %75.6% 76.0% 74.0%
YoY Revenue Growth %+9% +8% +8%

Segment mix and key products:

Segment/Product ($USD Millions WW)Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Growth Portfolio Total5,596 5,812 6,363
Legacy Portfolio Total6,605 6,080 5,979
Eliquis3,416 3,002 3,195
Revlimid1,353 1,412 1,339
Opdivo2,387 2,360 2,479
Yervoy630 642 675
Reblozyl425 447 547
Camzyos139 156 223
Opdualag235 233 254

KPIs:

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Non-GAAP Effective Tax Rate (%)14.1% 18.5% 19.9%
Cash Flow from Operations ($USD Billions)$2.3 $5.6 $4.4
Net Debt Position ($USD Billions)$(45.38) $(41.33) $(38.47)

Notes:

  • Q4 includes GAAP intangible asset impairment of ~$1.56B; specified items reconciled in 8-K Exhibit tables .
  • Q4 product metrics include inventory builds (e.g., Opdivo ~$70M; Camzyos ~$65M), as noted by management .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total Revenues (Reported & Ex-FX)FY 2025N/A~$45.5B New
Gross Margin % (Non-GAAP)FY 2025N/A~72% New
Operating Expenses (Non-GAAP)FY 2025N/A~$16B (MS&A + R&D excl IPRD/amortization) New
Other Income/(Expense)FY 2025N/A~$30M New
Tax Rate (Non-GAAP)FY 2025N/A~18% New
Diluted EPS (Non-GAAP)FY 2025N/A$6.55–$6.85 New
Legacy Portfolio Revenue DeclineFY 2025N/A~18–20% decline New
Revlimid WW SalesFY 2025N/A~$2.0–$2.5B New
FX Headwind (Revenue)FY 2025N/A~$(0.5)B New
Strategic Productivity Savings2025–2027~$1.5B program (majority achieved by YE 2024) +$2B incremental annualized by YE 2027 ($1B in 2025) Raised

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 and Q3)Current Period (Q4)Trend
Cobenfy (schizophrenia)Q2: PDUFA 9/26/24; launch prep; multi-billion potential . Q3: U.S. approval; re-establishing neuroscience .Early launch traction; ~1,000 TRx/week; >90% Medicaid and >80% Medicare access; focus on education, ramping through 2025 .Strengthening; faster clinical program cadence across AD psychosis/agitation/cognition, bipolar, autism .
Opdivo Qvantig (subcutaneous)Q2: FDA/EMA review underway . Q3: PDUFA 12/29 .U.S. approval; physician conversion expected 30–40% IV→SC ahead of LOE; permanent J code July accelerates H2 conversion .Positive uptake expected; supports IO durability into 2030s .
Medicare Part D redesignNoted Q3 cadence impacts expected .Q1 Eliquis tempered; higher 2H sales due to coverage gap elimination; overall net neutral across portfolio .Near-term Q1 headwind; favorable 2H trajectory .
Cost savings/programQ3: ~$1.5B program progressing .Expanded ~$2B incremental savings; ~50% org design, ~50% operational efficiency; drops to bottom line .Accelerating savings; margin support .
Hematology (Reblozyl/Breyanzi)Q2/Q3: strong growth; ex-U.S. launches .Reblozyl +71% WW (Q4), U.S. one-time GTN +$42M; Breyanzi +160% WW; strong demand and expanded indications .Robust; sustained demand .
CamzyosQ2/Q3: strong patient growth; ex-U.S. expansion .EU label: 6-month echo in maintenance; April U.S. PDUFA for REMS easing; ODYSSEY nHCM top-line in Q2 .Capacity expansion at COEs; indication expansion .
Policy/IRALimited prior detail.Management sees opportunity to address IRA issues (spillover/billet) with new administration; continued bipartisan engagement .Monitoring regulatory landscape .

Management Commentary

  • “We made good progress in 2024… strong topline growth driven by key products and important pipeline advancements… established a solid foundation to navigate the multi-year journey toward achieving top-tier sustainable growth” — CEO Christopher Boerner .
  • “We are entering a data-rich period with multiple catalysts over the next 24 months… potential to launch 10 or more new medicines and pursue over 30 indication expansions” — CEO .
  • “Expanded… ~ $2B incremental run-rate operating expense savings… ~$1B in 2025 and remainder by end of 2027… incremental savings drop to the bottom line” — CFO David Elkins .
  • “Eliquis… Q1 sales lowest quarter due to redesign; second-half higher; overall strong YoY growth” — CFO/Commercial .

Q&A Highlights

  • Cobenfy ramp: Early adoption with strong payer access; strategy to break entrenched prescribing habits and broaden psychiatrist base; ramp expected to strengthen in H2 2025 .
  • Cost program cadence: ~$2B incremental savings to improve agility; aligned to invest for growth while right-sizing structure; potential for ongoing alignment as business needs evolve .
  • Opdivo Qvantig conversion: Positive physician feedback; conversion pacing tied to temporary-to-permanent J code (accelerates H2) .
  • Camzyos: EU label easing; U.S. PDUFA in April to reduce echo monitoring burden; ODYSSEY nHCM readout expected in Q2 .
  • CELMoDs and MRD: FDA engagement to include MRD as co-primary endpoint for iberdomide; regulatory approach will depend on magnitude and risk-benefit; PFS remains co-primary .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 EPS and revenue was unavailable due to data access limits; comparisons to estimates are not provided. Values would have been retrieved from S&P Global*.
  • Management indicated 2025 revenue guidance (~$45.5B) is broadly in line once $500M FX headwind is considered vs Bloomberg consensus ($46.2B), with differences mainly in Legacy (Revlimid $2–$2.5B, generics) .

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Growth durability: Growth Portfolio surpassed Legacy in Q4 and is compounding, supported by strong oncology/hematology/cardiovascular assets and new neuroscience entry (Cobenfy) .
  • Near-term cadence: Expect softer Q1 from Eliquis destock and Part D dynamics, with H2 stronger; Q2 normalization company-wide per management’s phasing commentary .
  • Margin path: Expanded ~$2B savings program and Opdivo Qvantig conversion support margin trajectory; watch non-GAAP GM vs ~72% FY25 guide .
  • Launch catalysts: Monitor Cobenfy TRx growth and access, Camzyos ODYSSEY and U.S. REMS easing, and Opdivo Qvantig payer coding in H2 .
  • Legacy pressure priced: Generics (Sprycel/Revlimid/Abraxane/Pomalyst EU) remain headwinds; FY25 Legacy decline (~18–20%) embedded in guide; Revlimid guided to $2–$2.5B .
  • Pipeline optionality: 2025–2027 data cadence across CELMoDs, Milvexian, RYZ101, CD19 NEX-T, Sotyktu and more could reshape medium-term growth velocity .
  • Trading lens: Near-term sentiment may hinge on H1 phasing and cost program execution; constructive into H2 on Eliquis dynamics, Opdivo Qvantig conversion, and visible catalysts .

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